Antenna Occasio Source APC Newsgroup: act.indonesia



Written by: tapol@gn.apc.org
Date: 04 Nov 1998 14:07:37
Subject: AWSJ: In the Shadow of Sukarno
From: tapol@gn.apc.org (TAPOL)

11/04/98
The Asian Wall Street Journal

In the Shadow of Sukarno

By Jamie Mackie
 
At a recent rally for Megawati Sukarnoputri's previously banned PDI Perjuangan
party, huge crowds of young, banner-waving Indonesians gathered to cheer her
on. Scenes like this have led some foreign observers to consider her a
formidable rival to President B.J. Habibie if an election is held next year as
scheduled. But if Ms. Megawati, the daughter of Indonesia 's first president,
Sukarno, is to become a viable candidate for the presidency, she must do more
than just follow in her father's populist footsteps. She will have to put
forward a credible program to remedy Indonesia 's economy and its corruption-
prone political system.

So far there is no indication she will do so. True, there are several reasons
why Ms. Megawati is a strong candidate for the presidency. But there are also
grounds for doubting her ability to lead Indonesia out of its present turmoil
-- and one compelling reason why a Megawati presidency might be disastrous for
Indonesia .

The major dividing line between the parties in Indonesia has long been that
which separates the devoutly Muslim, or santri, segment of the population from
the non-Muslims (Christians, Hindu Balinese, animists etc.) and the Javanese
abangan, or only nominally Muslim segment. Ms. Megawati's chief rival for
popular support, the Muslim leader Amien Rais, and his National Mandate Party,
will certainly win a large share of the santri vote, although he will have to
compete for that share with the conservative, rural-based Nahdatul Ulama
party.

Ms. Megawati, on the other hand, will attract much of the old abangan segment
of the population who are nervous about a strongly Muslim government. The
abangan were the main base of her father's support. The santri-abangan
division became a source of open conflict in Sukarno's final years when his
leftist policies seriously alienated the strongly anti-Communist santri
community, which included many of the country's indigenous small businessmen.
Due to the ongoing, Islamization of Indonesia , the santri segment of the
population has grown rapidly in recent years, at the expense of the abangan.
How this will be reflected in the voting strength of the various political
parties, however, is impossible to assess.

Ms. Megawati has one big advantage over Mr. Rais: The santri Muslims are
currently divided, while her only major rival for the votes of the abangan
Javanese is Golkar, the former "state party" controlled by the bureaucracy and
the military under Suharto's rule. While Golkar still has clout in some
regions, it is widely despised. Ms. Megawati also has the backing of several
respected ex-generals who are opposed to the prospect of a santri-dominated
society, backing which may help her win the votes of many members of the
educated urban elite.

So despite her shortcomings, there is no doubt that Ms. Megawati will be a
strong contender in next year's elections. The Sukarno legacy remains a
powerful political asset, and may be enough to win her party a great deal of
votes. But how many and whether they will be enough to carry her on to the
presidency are issues which raise altogether more complex questions.

As Sukarno's self-proclaimed political heir, Ms. Megawati is a popular figure
in the eyes of many Indonesians who have come to hate the man who overthrew
him, former President Suharto. She symbolizes opposition to all that Suharto
stood for. This myth is very powerful among the young, who have no personal
memories of the chaotic Sukarno years. In fact, Indonesians under the age of
35, the vast majority of a largely youthful population, know very little of
the disastrous political and economic tempest that Sukarno created during his
final years.

President Sukarno still holds a place of honor in the Indonesian history
books. He is rightfully remembered as the man who unified the Indonesian
nationalist movement, dared to proclaim Indonesian independence and led the
country to victory in its military struggle to overthrow Dutch colonial rule
from 1945-49. He was a charismatic and spellbinding orator who inspired both
the masses and many -- though not all -- of the country's newly emerging
elite. Without him, Indonesian history would certainly have taken a very
different course.

In the last decade of his presidency, however, Sukarno led Indonesia down a
path of socio-economic decline which gave rise to a violent explosion of
political conflict in October 1965. By the time of his ouster, Sukarno's high-
flown rhetoric about "Nasakom" (national unity among Nationalists, Muslims and
Communists) was a facade of empty words. He offered no real solutions to the
mounting conflicts between these rival groups as social upheaval intensified.

Sukarno had no solutions as the economy spiraled into endemic inflation,
exceeding 600% in the last year of his rule. His populist and initially
popular doctrines of economic nationalism were leading the nation toward
bankruptcy. When he was displaced by Mr. Suharto's "New Order" in 1966-67, his
policies were so utterly discredited that it was relatively easy for his
successor to reverse course and restore the economy to rapid growth.

Nevertheless, the Sukarno myth is too often recalled in terms of heroic, self-
sacrificing struggle on behalf of the nation -- all of which appeals to
today's young Indonesians. This idealized view of Sukarno is entirely
preferable to the greed, corruption and crony capitalism of the Suharto
regime's later years. But many of Ms. Megawati supporters overlook the fact
that Sukarno's simplistic doctrines of state socialism, economic nationalism
and disregard for market forces would be quite inappropriate to the crisis
facing Indonesia today.

Ms. Megawati may be dimly aware of this, for she tends to say very little
about economic issues in her public speeches. Instead, she simply reiterates
popular cliches about the need for more democracy, while leaving out specifics
on how to achieve it. She describes her economic policies as "populist and
pro-business" without elaborating further. Yet that is all her mass audiences
want to hear. The harder question of how to steer the country out of its
current crisis is not to their taste. So she remains conspicuously silent when
it comes to offering any practical suggestions on how to cope with the current
crisis. What's more, she has never repudiated the leftist, anti-market
doctrines that are a central part of her father's legacy.

Unfortunately for her, Ms. Megawati has none of her father's charisma and
oratorical skills. In fact, she doesn't have much personality at all. She is
simply a pleasant and decent Indonesian upper-middle-class housewife of
limited ideas. Without the mantle of her father's reputation she would be
nothing. She has so far shown none of the political talents of Mr. Rais. While
both displayed considerable courage in daring to speak out against President
Suharto when he was still in power, Mr. Rais can make the far stronger claim
that he led the popular protest movement that finally brought Mr. Suharto
down.

If Ms. Megawati is to gain acceptance as a credible candidate for the
presidency, however, she will have to do more than just bask in the aura of
her father's reputation. She will have to put forward a realisitic plan to
bring Indonesia 's economic crisis to an end and clean up the the country's
corrupt political system. If she is to convince more than the cheering
students who swell her rallies that she is capable of leading Indonesia out of
turmoil, she must also repudiate the vaguely leftist economic populism that
her father traded on. It remains to be seen whether she has the heart or the
mind to accomplish that.

---

Mr. Mackie is a professor emeritus at the Research School of Asian and Pacific
Studies at Australian National University and visiting professor at the
Melbourne Business School.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
TAPOL, the Indonesia Human Rights Campaign
111 Northwood Road, Thornton Heath,
Surrey CR7 8HW, UK
Phone: 0181 771-2904 Fax: 0181 653-0322
email: tapol@gn.apc.org
Campaigning to expose human rights violations in
Indonesia, East Timor, West Papua and Aceh

Join us to celebrate TAPOL's 25th anniversary on
20 October 1998. Contact us for ticket details.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Index E-mail Author Previous message Next message